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2020 Was Especially Deadly. Covid Wasn’t the Only Culprit.

The year 2020 has been abnormal for mortalities. At least 356,000 more people in the United States have died than usual since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the country in the spring. But not all of these deaths have been directly linked to Covid-19.

More than a quarter of deaths above normal have been from other causes, including diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, high blood pressure and pneumonia, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Deaths attributed to other causes above normal

Diabetes

15% above normal

Alzheimer’s disease and dementia

12%

High blood pressure

11%

Pneumonia and flu

11%

Coronary heart disease

6%

Stroke

5%

Sepsis

4%

Kidney failure

1%

Note: Data are from March 15 to Nov. 14. Not all causes are included. Deaths from external causes, such as suicides and drug overdoses, are not available because investigations are still underway in most cases.

Some of these additional deaths may actually have been due to Covid-19, but they could have been undiagnosed or misattributed to other causes.

Many of them are most likely indirectly related to the virus and caused by disruptions from the pandemic, including strains on health care systems, inadequate access to supplies like ventilators or people avoiding hospitals for fear of exposure to the coronavirus.

40,000 extra deaths from diabetes, Alzheimer’s, high blood pressure and pneumonia

Research has shown that people with underlying health conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease are particularly vulnerable to severe illness and death if they contract Covid-19.

In several states, deaths attributed to diabetes are at least 20 percent above normal this year.

Deaths above normal from diabetes

United States

March 15 – Nov. 14

Deaths above normal

8,500

Percent above normal

15%

New Jersey

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

37%

Illinois

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

26%

New York City

March 15 – Nov. 21

300

24%

Louisiana

March 15 – Nov. 7

200

24%

Michigan

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

21%

Indiana

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

20%

Arizona

March 15 – Nov. 14

200

20%

Tennessee

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

20%

Florida

March 15 – Nov. 21

800

19%

Massachusetts

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

19%

Maryland

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

19%

Texas

March 15 – Nov. 21

800

18%

New York (excluding N.Y.C.)

March 15 – Nov. 21

300

18%

Pennsylvania

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

17%

Georgia

March 15 – Nov. 14

200

16%

Note: Only jurisdictions with sufficient data and deaths above normal that are higher than the national percentage are included. Deaths from New York City are counted separately from the rest of New York State.

Prolonged economic stress on families during the pandemic could also be contributing to increased deaths among those with chronic illnesses.

“You end up having to choose between your prescription medications or buying groceries or keeping a roof over your head,” said Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, whose research in JAMA has also shown deaths from other causes to be higher than normal.

At least 10 states have seen deaths from high blood pressure — a common comorbidity like diabetes — rise even higher than the national percentage. These may include deaths from heart failure, kidney failure or stroke.

Many people who die from high blood pressure are also at high risk for severe Covid-19, so some of these deaths could be Covid-19 deaths that are missed, according to Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality statistics branch at the C.D.C.’s National Center for Health Statistics.

Deaths above normal from high blood pressure

United States

March 15 – Nov. 14

Deaths above normal

7,600

Percent above normal

11%

New York City

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,000

39%

Louisiana

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

27%

Michigan

March 15 – Nov. 21

600

24%

Mississippi

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

23%

Illinois

March 15 – Nov. 21

500

22%

New Jersey

March 15 – Nov. 14

200

22%

Georgia

March 15 – Nov. 7

500

20%

Maryland

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

18%

Texas

March 15 – Nov. 7

600

14%

Tennessee

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

13%

Indiana

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

12%

Pennsylvania

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

11%

Note: Only jurisdictions with sufficient data and deaths above normal that are higher than the national percentage are included.

Nationwide, deaths from Alzheimer’s disease, which usually affects older adults, are 12 percent above normal this year, with several Southern states seeing larger increases. This could be related to challenges in providing adequate care in nursing homes during the pandemic — deaths in nursing homes account for more than a third of the nation’s total coronavirus toll. The virus may have also aggravated some of these patients’ existing health conditions.

Other factors related to the pandemic like social isolation and challenges in getting emergency services could also have contributed to deaths, Dr. Woolf said.

Deaths above normal from Alzheimer’s disease and dementia

United States

March 15 – Nov. 14

Deaths above normal

21,300

Percent above normal

12%

New Mexico

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

29%

Louisiana

March 15 – Nov. 14

600

26%

Mississippi

March 15 – Nov. 14

300

22%

Texas

March 15 – Nov. 21

2,900

22%

Georgia

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,100

20%

Arizona

March 15 – Nov. 21

700

20%

South Carolina

March 15 – Nov. 21

600

20%

Colorado

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

19%

Maryland

March 15 – Nov. 21

500

18%

Nevada

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

17%

Michigan

March 15 – Nov. 21

900

17%

West Virginia

March 15 – Oct. 24

100

17%

Illinois

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,000

15%

Kentucky

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

15%

Florida

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,700

15%

Ohio

March 15 – Nov. 21

1,100

15%

New Hampshire

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

14%

California

March 15 – Nov. 21

2,300

14%

Virginia

March 15 – Nov. 21

600

14%

Indiana

March 15 – Nov. 21

500

13%

Puerto Rico

March 15 – Oct. 31

200

13%

New York City

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

13%

Nebraska

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

12%

Note: Only jurisdictions with sufficient data and deaths above normal that are higher than the national percentage are included.

Many of the higher than normal deaths from pneumonia are most likely Covid-19 deaths that were not identified as such, especially earlier in the pandemic when coronavirus tests were scarce. Chest X-rays from the virus and pneumonia also look especially similar, experts said.

New York City, an early epicenter of the pandemic, has seen pneumonia deaths reach about 50 percent above normal, more than double the percentage in the states with the highest rates.

Deaths above normal from pneumonia and flu

United States

March 15 – Nov. 14

Deaths above normal

3,000

Percent above normal

11%

New York City

March 15 – Nov. 21

400

50%

Tennessee

March 15 – Nov. 14

100

23%

Texas

March 15 – Nov. 21

300

19%

Michigan

March 15 – Nov. 14

100

18%

Florida

March 15 – Nov. 21

200

14%

Illinois

March 15 – Nov. 21

100

13%

Note: Only jurisdictions with sufficient data and deaths above normal that are higher than the national percentage are included.

As the pandemic has progressed, coroners and medical examiners have become better at recognizing the deaths caused by the virus.

Counting deaths takes time, and many states are weeks or months behind in their reporting. These estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years.

Dr. Woolf also warned that many people who are not captured in mortality statistics may still have adverse health outcomes.

“A person who survived the pandemic may end up deteriorating over the next few years because of problems that happened during the pandemic,” he said. This could include those who have missed routine checkups or have had delays in receiving proper treatment for an ailment.

Methodology

Total death numbers are estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which are based on death certificates counted by the centers and adjusted to account for typical lags in the reporting of deaths.

Only weeks in which the C.D.C. estimates the data to be at least 90 percent complete or in which estimated deaths are above expected death numbers are included. Because states vary somewhat in their speed in reporting deaths to the federal government, the data show death trends for slightly different time periods. Weeks in which reported deaths were less than 50 percent of the C.D.C. estimate were not included. Only jurisdictions with sufficient data were included for analysis of deaths by specific causes.

Expected deaths were calculated with a simple model based on the weekly number of deaths from previous years released by the C.D.C., adjusted to account for trends, like population changes, over time.

Excess death numbers are rounded.

Additional reporting by Josh Katz and Margot Sanger-Katz.